Five Reasons The Patriots Won’t Win It All – And I Won’t Mention Randy Moss

Everybody has
New England pegged to be the toast of the NFL this year. Just hand them the Lombardi Trophy right now, they say. Not so fast, people. I’ve got five reasons the Patriots aren’t going to win it this year. And I won’t even mention Randy Moss.

Age of the Defense – So you may be wondering what I’m talking about here. After all, 6 of their starters are under 30. The problem arises from their core players – the ones that are most significant in the defense. In a 3-4, the linebackers are essential, and the numbers there are all 30 and above. Roosevelt Colvin and Adalius Thomas surely have a lot left in the tank, so there are probably no concerns there. But Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi are 32 and 34, respectively. Both showed sluggishness in the late part of games during the post-season (e.g., the AFC Championship game), and there’s no reason to believe that another long season won’t do the same this year. Additionally, Rodney Harrison is 34. Little injuries slow you down around that age, and
Harrison is a big hitter that gives and takes a lot of abuse. These are also the leaders of the team, so any absence could severely alter the chemistry of the team. Speaking of which…

Chemistry 101 – I’m not mentioning him, I promise. But remember this: In the past, precious few new personalities were welcomed to the Patriots teams each year. That has changed, as this year at least seven new players who could have significant playing time have been added to the mix. This isn’t like plugging in Corey Dillon or Roosevelt Colvin over the years. You aren’t replacing Ty Law or Lawyer Milloy. This is a major change in the personalities of players and the team as a whole. Everyone will have to realign themselves to the way others think and play and react, and the chemistry may not recover. Players have to gel with each other, they have to get used to each other. And sometimes, personalities don’t mix well. Even without you know who, you have to wonder if everyone will coexist.

Corey Dillon – Where did this come from? Well, it’s true that Dillon wasn’t the focal point of their offense. Maroney had more of the flashy carries, getting more yards and spinning and juking and all that fun stuff. But don’t underestimate how important Dillon was on short yardage situations. Maroney, who I love as a player, didn’t show the same grittiness and power that Dillon had. Let’s face it, 13 touchdowns in 199 attempts is going to be hard to replace.

The Strength of the AFC – Have you looked at the Patriots’ schedule lately? It’s not exactly going to be an easy road to the Playoffs. In the first four weeks of the season we will see the Pats at the Jets, home against the Chargers and then at Cincy. Not the easiest of starts. Then they are at
Dallas in week 6 and at Indy in week 9, just in time for their bye. It’s not far-fetched to see them at 5-4 by their break. But, it’s the next seven weeks that should have them worried: Buffalo, Philly, at Baltimore, Pittsburgh, the Jets, a nice
Miami game and than at the Giants. Most are home games, true. But these are going to be rough games.
Buffalo will be a joke, but the next three are elite teams and the last three aren’t slouches. While they should make the playoffs, they will still have to face the likes of Indy, Baltimore or
San Diego in the postseason. By then, too much might have caught up with them.

The Rise of the NFC – Don’t laugh.
Chicago is still tops in the NFC and isn’t to be laughed at. It’s really only Grossman’s second season, and he’ll have learned a lot. Philidelphia could rebound with a healthy McNabb. New Orleans is back and

Tampa
Bay has a starting quarterback now (whoever it is).
Seattle should be healthy. Then there are teams like Dallas, the Giants and
St. Louis, all of whom have the talent to surprise people. The balance of power may be on its way to swinging back to the NFC, as most teams are replenishing their cupboards with talented players. Even if
New England gets to the Super Bowl, they may be facing a dangerous NFC team.